Mapping the Maze

Using the Transition Model Canvas to Analyse Socio-technological Transitions

The Transition Model Canvas (TMC) helps to understand, evaluate and accelerate socio-technical transitions, such as the shift from fossil-fueled transport to zero-emission mobility. These transitions are complex: they unfold over time, involve many actors and challenge existing systems.

Designed to bridge the gap between abstract theory and practical insight, the TMC offers a clear visual framework. Students use it to map the core elements of socio-technical systems, e.g. infrastructures, institutions, innovations or actors, based on the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) from transition studies.

Inspired by the Business Model Canvas, the TMC enables students to analyse systemic dynamics and identify leverage points for change. It supports both system exploration and strategy design, making complexity visible and actionable.

Learning outcomes

The student is able to map the actors, institutions and infrastructures involved in a specific transition and understands the interrelated dynamics within complex socio-technological systems
The student is able to make sense of existing and emerging systems by identifying patterns and formulating potential strategies to influence transitions

By working with the Transition Model Canvas, students explore and make sense of the complex dynamics within a socio-technological transition.

1.Setting the Scene

10-20 mins

Before class, ask students to:

Watch the knowledge clip on transitions and the Transition Model canvas;
Read the scientific article on the TMC methodology, which includes an example of a completed canvas for inspiration.

In class, using the handout with background information, begin with a brief explanation of what a transition is and the purpose of the Transition Makers Canvas. Position it within the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework and give short descriptions of the landscape level, the incumbent system and the niche system. Although these concepts are introduced in the knowledge clip, repeating them helps reinforce understanding.

Introduce key concepts from transition research, such as system levels, actors and institutions, and explain how these interact in complex systems. This ensures students adopt a systemic, not purely technical, way of thinking.

Hand out the Transition Model Canvas to each group. Emphasise that the TMC is iterative: students may revisit and revise earlier sections as their understanding grows and new insights emerge.

Tip: all students may work on a shared transition case or explore different cases in subgroups. If your course focuses on a specific transition (e.g. energy, mobility, protein), use this as a starting point.

2.Defining the Transition Goal

15-25 mins

Divide the class into groups of 3 to 5, seated together at a table. Each group has 10 minutes to define a SMART transition goal: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time-bound.

The goal can include both a short-term milestone and a long-term vision. It should specify the geographic context, sector and/or technology involved. For example:

Short-term: 50% of all passenger vehicles sold in the Netherlands by 2030 are zero-emission.
Long-term: 100% of passenger vehicles sold in the Netherlands by 2040 are zero-emission.

Ask the groups to discuss:

What future system do you want to help create?
Why is this transition meaningful or urgent?

Then, hold a plenary reflection:

Are the goals truly SMART?
Do all group members support the chosen direction?

3.Mapping the Incumbent System

35-45 mins

Briefly revisit the incumbent system: the dominant, established system currently meeting societal needs, supported by strong actors, rules, routines and infrastructure. Ask the student groups to map the incumbent system in the ‘Key elements & interactions’ section of the canvas by identifying:

Actors (e.g. ministries, companies, user groups);
Institutions (e.g. laws, subsidies, standards);
Infrastructure (e.g. roads, energy grids, digital platforms);
The interactions between these elements.

Next, students identify the strengths and vulnerabilities of the incumbent system. Emphasise that this is done from the perspective of the incumbent system itself:

Strengths are what make the system stable and resistant to change;
Vulnerabilities are cracks, inefficiencies or tensions where change might take root.

These should follow logically from the ‘Key elements & interactions’ section.

Pause for a brief class reflection on the results thus far. Highlight common patterns across cases.

Then, students explore the two types of strategies of the incumbent system and complete the third section. Drawing on examples of strategies from the article or knowledge clip, they identify how incumbent actors maintain or reinforce the current system. Allow 15 minutes for groups to define these strategies in their canvas.

Finally, reflect on the results as a group:

Which strategies are most powerful or effective?
Which vulnerabilities might provide entry points for change?

Tip: students are working on the left-hand side of the canvas and work their way down from top to bottom in this step.

4.Mapping the Niche System

40-45 mins

Explain that the niche system represents emerging alternative(s) that challenge the incumbent, and is often incomplete or fragile.

Start with the first section on the right-hand side of the canvas, ‘Focus, key elements & interactions’. Ask students to identify:

What is already present in the niche?
What is still missing?

Move to the second section, where students reflect on:

Strengths (e.g. innovative approaches, public support);
Vulnerabilities (e.g. small scale, lack of funding);
Uncertainties (e.g. unclear policy environment, unknown actor behaviour).

Here, uncertainties are included, as in the niche system some components are still unknown.

Students now complete the first two sections of the niche system.

Pause for a brief class reflection:

What makes this niche promising?
What elements are still fragile or unclear?

Introduce the final two sections:

‘Strategies of the niche system’: What are niche actors doing (or could do) to strengthen and scale their initiative?
‘Strategic resources – present & missing’: What resources are needed to support those strategies?

Then, students complete and add to all sections of the niche system.

Finally, reflect on the results as a group:

Which strategy in the niche system do we consider most promising, and why?
Which missing resource presents the biggest challenge to making that strategy effective?

Tip: students are working on the right-hand side of the canvas and work their way down from top to bottom in this step.

5.Iteration and Completion

20-35 mins

Introduce the landscape level: slow-changing or disruptive external developments that shape, pressure or accelerate transitions, such as pandemics, wars, climate shocks or shifts in other systems.

Ask students to:

Identify relevant landscape factors in their transition case;
Revisit and revise their canvas in light of these factors: what needs to change in light of this broader context?

Next, groups exchange canvases and provide peer feedback using the assessment criteria.

End the activity with a plenary reflection, using prompts such as:

What do you still not fully understand about the current or future system?
What did you learn from this exercise?

Please note, as part of assessment as learning, students write a 500-word individual reflection paper. Optionally, refer to the guiding questions for a summative evaluation to formally assess the students’ learning after the peer feedback round or in a follow-up session.

Through peer feedback, and optionally teacher-led assessment, assessment of learning takes place. Assessment as learning is supported through individual reflection, while also being embedded throughout the activity through short group reflections. These approaches can also be combined to create a more in-depth learning process.

Purpose

Assessment as learning aims to strengthen the learning process and the development of metacognitive skills. It empowers students to direct their own learning and to become independent, critical self-assessors.

Assessment of learning aims to strengthen the learning process and the development of metacognitive skills. It empowers students to direct their own learning and to become independent, critical self-assessors.

Roles

Self-assessment, peer assessment and, optionally, teacher-led assessment

Characteristics

Assessment with rubric and self-regulated learning

Materials

Individual reflection paper and peer or teacher-led assessment criteria

Download Individual reflection paper

Download Assessment criteria peer feedback

Download Teacher-led assessment

The instruction video and handout with background information and Transition Model Canvas (Step 1) can be downloaded below.

You can optionally refer to the guiding questions to deepen the group reflections at various points in the activity.

The TMC formats, instruction video, a workshop format and the paper outlining the methodology can be downloaded at https://www.uu.nl/en/research/copernicus-institute-of-sustainable-development/transition-model-canvas. The format that outlines the suggested time spent on the different sections of the canvas is available at https://www.uu.nl/sites/default/files/Workshop%20format.pdf.

To keep all students engaged at the same pace, invite groups to raise their hands once they’ve completed a field on the canvas. This allows you to briefly check their work, offer targeted suggestions and decide whether to move on to the next section. Let other groups know they can keep iterating if needed.

Using different colours (e.g. sticky notes or markers) for actors, institutions and infrastructure helps make the canvas more legible and visually organised.

The learning activity can be extended from 2 to 3 hours to allow more time for depth and discussion. The canvas can also serve as a support tool for students while learning in depth about a particular transition or to guide idea development aimed at societal change.

Download Instruction video

Download Background information

Download Transition Model Canvas

Download Guiding group reflection questions

Van Rijnsoever, F.J. & Leendertse, J. (2020) A practical tool for analyzing socio-technical transitions. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 37: 225–237.

Van Rijnsoever, F.J. & Leendertse, J. (2021). Outline of a transition model canvas workshop. Utrecht University.

Van Rijnsoever, F.J. & Leendertse, J. (n.d.). Transition Model Canvas. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University.